Back to UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
Prelims2 Women's Flyweight

Lauren Mueller vs Poliana Botelho

UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 ·State Farm Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Lauren Mueller
Poliana Botelho
55% 45%
Why
67"
Reach
67"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
5-4
Career record
Δ 2 pp
8-6
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mueller: 47 sig / 0 TD · Botelho: 47 sig / 2 TD
Lauren Mueller
Poliana Botelho
22
Sig strikes landed
35
65
Sig strikes attempted
76
48
Total strikes landed
64
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.6
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
181s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Lauren Mueller

"Princess Tiger"
5-4
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
L1

Poliana Botelho

8-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—