Prelims2
Welterweight
Curtis Millender vs Belal Muhammad
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
·State Farm Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Curtis Millender
Belal Muhammad
37%
63%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
31
Age
Δ 1y
31
17-6
Career record
Δ 6 pp
24-6
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Millender: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Muhammad: 47 sig / 2 TD
Curtis Millender
Belal Muhammad
52
Sig strikes landed
50
132
Sig strikes attempted
125
60
Total strikes landed
78
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.5
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
4s
Control time
193s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Curtis Millender
"Curtious"
17-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
Blue corner
L1
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
24-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—