Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alan Jouban
Dwight Grant
69%
31%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
37
Age
Δ 3y
35
18-7
Career record
Δ 5 pp
12-6
W1
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Jouban: 24 sig / 1 TD ·
Grant: 38 sig / 0 TD
Alan Jouban
Dwight Grant
47
Sig strikes landed
35
101
Sig strikes attempted
97
54
Total strikes landed
37
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
86s
Control time
24s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alan Jouban
"Brahma"
18-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Dwight Grant
"The Body Snatcher"
12-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—