🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
·State Farm Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Dustin Poirier
60%
40%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
28-9
Career record
Δ 0 pp
31-10
W8
Current streak
W4
19
UFC fights in our DB
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Holloway: 181 sig / 0 TD ·
Poirier: 178 sig / 1 TD
Max Holloway
Dustin Poirier
140
Sig strikes landed
99
315
Sig strikes attempted
225
140
Total strikes landed
102
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.0
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
63s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
19 fights · 16-3
Last 5
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
Blue corner
W4
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
21 fights · 16-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—