🏆 Title fight
Main
Middleweight
Kelvin Gastelum vs Israel Adesanya
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
·State Farm Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Kelvin Gastelum
Israel Adesanya
47%
53%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 8"
80"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
22-11
Career record
Δ 14 pp
25-6
W2
Current streak
W5
14
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Gastelum: 91 sig / 1 TD ·
Adesanya: 109 sig / 0 TD
Kelvin Gastelum
Israel Adesanya
61
Sig strikes landed
66
144
Sig strikes attempted
151
73
Total strikes landed
94
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.9
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
2.60
137s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Kelvin Gastelum
22-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
14 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
Blue corner
W5
Israel Adesanya
"The Last Stylebender"
25-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—