Prelims2
Bantamweight
Alex Perez vs Mark De La Rosa
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alex Perez
Mark De La Rosa
76%
24%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
65"
27
Age
Δ 2y
25
26-11
Career record
Δ 0 pp
12-5
L1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Perez: 60 sig / 2 TD ·
De La Rosa: 26 sig / 0 TD
Alex Perez
Mark De La Rosa
39
Sig strikes landed
30
82
Sig strikes attempted
69
59
Total strikes landed
41
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
170s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alex Perez
26-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
Blue corner
W2
Mark De La Rosa
"Bumblebee"
12-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—