Back to UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Ryan MacDonald vs Chris Gutierrez

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis ·Bridgestone Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Ryan MacDonald
Chris Gutierrez
43% 57%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
MacDonald: 15 sig / 0 TD · Gutierrez: 69 sig / 0 TD
Ryan MacDonald
Chris Gutierrez
38
Sig strikes landed
33
76
Sig strikes attempted
62
54
Total strikes landed
43
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
92s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ryan MacDonald

"Main Event"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
Blue corner
L1

Chris Gutierrez

"El Guapo"
22-8-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
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