Main
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis vs Junior Dos Santos
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
·Intrust Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Junior Dos Santos
68%
32%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
34
Age
Δ 1y
35
29-14
Career record
Δ 4 pp
22-9
L1
Current streak
W2
16
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Lewis: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Dos Santos: 29 sig / 0 TD
Derrick Lewis
Junior Dos Santos
41
Sig strikes landed
57
91
Sig strikes attempted
108
49
Total strikes landed
65
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
63s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
29-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
16 fights · 12-4
Last 5
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
Blue corner
W2
Junior Dos Santos
"Cigano"
22-9
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
15 fights · 11-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—