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Prelims1 Lightweight

Damir Hadzovic vs Marco Polo Reyes

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos ·O2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Damir Hadzovic
Marco Polo Reyes
66% 34%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
15-8
Career record
Δ 9 pp
9-7
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Hadzovic: 58 sig / 2 TD · Reyes: 24 sig / 0 TD
Damir Hadzovic
Marco Polo Reyes
38
Sig strikes landed
34
88
Sig strikes attempted
100
45
Total strikes landed
39
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.5
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
57s
Control time
46s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Damir Hadzovic

"The Bosnian Bomber"
15-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
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L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
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W UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
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L UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
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Blue corner
W1

Marco Polo Reyes

9-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
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L UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
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W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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W UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
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W UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
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