Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gina Mazany
Macy Chiasson
29%
71%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
30
Age
Δ 3y
28
7-7
Career record
Δ 17 pp
12-6
L1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mazany: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Chiasson: 25 sig / 0 TD
Gina Mazany
Macy Chiasson
16
Sig strikes landed
32
28
Sig strikes attempted
64
31
Total strikes landed
69
0.6
Takedowns landed
2.0
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
103s
Control time
318s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gina Mazany
"Danger"
7-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
Blue corner
W1
Macy Chiasson
12-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—