Main
Heavyweight
Francis Ngannou vs Cain Velasquez
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
·Footprint Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Francis Ngannou
Cain Velasquez
65%
35%
Why
83"
Reach
Δ 6"
77"
32
Age
Δ 4y
37
18-3
Career record
Δ 2 pp
15-3
W1
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ngannou: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Velasquez: 1 sig / 0 TD
Francis Ngannou
Cain Velasquez
26
Sig strikes landed
25
63
Sig strikes attempted
53
41
Total strikes landed
46
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.0
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
58s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
17%
KO/TKO
74%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Francis Ngannou
"The Predator"
18-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
83"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
L
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
Blue corner
W1
Cain Velasquez
15-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—