Back to UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2
Prelims1 Welterweight

Thiago Alves vs Max Griffin

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 ·Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Thiago Alves
Max Griffin
52% 48%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
23-16
Career record
Δ 0 pp
20-14
L2
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Alves: 83 sig / 0 TD · Griffin: 112 sig / 2 TD
Thiago Alves
Max Griffin
55
Sig strikes landed
57
125
Sig strikes attempted
137
67
Total strikes landed
65
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
68s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Thiago Alves

"Pitbull"
23-16
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 12 fights · 5-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
W UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
L UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
Blue corner
L1

Max Griffin

"Pain"
20-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—