Prelims1
Lightweight
Alexander Hernandez vs Donald Cerrone
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
·Barclays Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Alexander Hernandez
Donald Cerrone
51%
49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
26
Age
Δ 9y
36
19-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
37-17
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Hernandez: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Cerrone: 80 sig / 1 TD
Alexander Hernandez
Donald Cerrone
36
Sig strikes landed
42
75
Sig strikes attempted
87
52
Total strikes landed
42
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
172s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Alexander Hernandez
"El Gran Chango"
19-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
Blue corner
W1
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
37-17
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
29 fights · 21-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—