Back to UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Alonzo Menifield vs Vinicius Moreira

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw ·Barclays Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Alonzo Menifield
Vinicius Moreira
73% 27%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Menifield: 33 sig / 0 TD · Moreira: 11 sig / 0 TD
Alonzo Menifield
Vinicius Moreira
36
Sig strikes landed
33
69
Sig strikes attempted
73
55
Total strikes landed
47
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
164s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Alonzo Menifield

"Atomic"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner

Vinicius Moreira

"Mamute"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30