Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Carlos Condit
Michael Chiesa
64%
36%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
35
Age
Δ 4y
31
32-15
Career record
Δ 3 pp
20-8
L4
Current streak
L2
13
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Condit: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Chiesa: 10 sig / 4 TD
Carlos Condit
Michael Chiesa
41
Sig strikes landed
45
95
Sig strikes attempted
94
60
Total strikes landed
59
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.0
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
61s
Control time
180s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L4
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
32-15
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
13 fights · 6-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
L
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
Blue corner
L2
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
20-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—