🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones vs Alexander Gustafsson
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
·The Forum
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Jones
Alexander Gustafsson
92%
8%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 6"
79"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
28-1
Career record
Δ 26 pp
19-8
W8
Current streak
W2
14
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Jones: 59 sig / 1 TD ·
Gustafsson: 22 sig / 0 TD
Jon Jones
Alexander Gustafsson
82
Sig strikes landed
55
140
Sig strikes attempted
143
107
Total strikes landed
65
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.1
5.8
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
236s
Control time
25s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Jon Jones
"Bones"
28-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
14 fights · 13-0
Last 5
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
W2
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
19-8
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
L
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
L
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—