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Prelims2 Lightweight

Alex Gorgees vs Damir Ismagulov

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa ·Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Alex Gorgees
Damir Ismagulov
24% 76%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
23
Age
Δ 4y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gorgees: 10 sig / 0 TD · Ismagulov: 34 sig / 5 TD
Alex Gorgees
Damir Ismagulov
30
Sig strikes landed
40
72
Sig strikes attempted
73
39
Total strikes landed
61
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
97s
Control time
189s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Alex Gorgees

"Hitman"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
23
Blue corner

Damir Ismagulov

"Qazaq"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28