Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thiago Moises
Gleidson Cutis
78%
22%
Why
23
Age
Δ 6y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Moises: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Cutis: 13 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Moises
Gleidson Cutis
41
Sig strikes landed
33
84
Sig strikes attempted
73
58
Total strikes landed
43
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
159s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Thiago Moises
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
Gleidson Cutis
"Poney"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30