Back to DWCS Brazil 1.2
Main Middleweight

Leonardo Silva de Oliveira vs Marcio Alexandre Junior

DWCS Brazil 1.2 ·The Ultimate Fighter Gym
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Leonardo Silva de Oliveira
Marcio Alexandre Junior
50% 50%
Why
26
Age
Δ 3y
29

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Silva de Oliveira: 2 sig / 3 TD · Alexandre Junior: 1 sig / 0 TD
Leonardo Silva de Oliveira
Marcio Alexandre Junior
35
Sig strikes landed
37
74
Sig strikes attempted
74
50
Total strikes landed
51
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
98s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Leonardo Silva de Oliveira

"Cabecao"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Marcio Alexandre Junior

"Lyoto"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29