Back to UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Sumudaerji vs Louis Smolka

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 ·Cadillac Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Sumudaerji
Louis Smolka
73% 27%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
23
Age
Δ 5y
27
—
Current streak
L4
0
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Sumudaerji: 18 sig / 0 TD · Smolka: 32 sig / 2 TD
Sumudaerji
Louis Smolka
44
Sig strikes landed
47
94
Sig strikes attempted
94
58
Total strikes landed
66
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.5
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
98s
Control time
205s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Sumudaerji

"The Tibetan Eagle"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
Blue corner
L4

Louis Smolka

"Da Last Samurai"
17-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
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