Back to UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2
Prelims1 Middleweight

Kevin Holland vs John Phillips

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 ·Cadillac Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Kevin Holland
John Phillips
77% 23%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 6"
75"
26
Age
Δ 7y
34
29-16
Career record
Δ 0 pp
22-12
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Holland: 123 sig / 5 TD · Phillips: 51 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Holland
John Phillips
34
Sig strikes landed
36
54
Sig strikes attempted
128
62
Total strikes landed
55
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.4
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
109s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
50%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Kevin Holland

"Trailblazer"
29-16 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
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Blue corner
L1

John Phillips

"The Welsh Wrecking Machine"
22-12 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
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