Back to UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Zhang Weili vs Jessica Aguilar

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 ·Cadillac Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Zhang Weili
Jessica Aguilar
83% 17%
Why
63"
Reach
63"
29
Age
Δ 7y
36
27-4
Career record
Δ 15 pp
21-8
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Weili: 45 sig / 1 TD · Aguilar: 9 sig / 0 TD
Zhang Weili
Jessica Aguilar
65
Sig strikes landed
43
155
Sig strikes attempted
115
93
Total strikes landed
65
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.4
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
159s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Zhang Weili

"Magnum"
27-4
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
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Blue corner
W1

Jessica Aguilar

"Jag"
21-8
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
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L UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
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L UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—