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Prelims2 Light Heavyweight

Adam Milstead vs Mike Rodriguez

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta ·Fiserv Forum
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Adam Milstead
Mike Rodriguez
52% 48%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
82"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
8-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
11-8
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Milstead: 10 sig / 0 TD · Rodriguez: 35 sig / 0 TD
Adam Milstead
Mike Rodriguez
47
Sig strikes landed
50
94
Sig strikes attempted
117
55
Total strikes landed
60
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
82s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Adam Milstead

"The Prototype"
8-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
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Blue corner
L1

Mike Rodriguez

"Slo Mike"
11-8 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
83"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
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