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Michael Trizano vs Luis Pena

UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez ·Ball Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Michael Trizano
Luis Pena
59% 41%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
27
Age
Δ 2y
25
12-3
Career record
Δ 3 pp
10-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Trizano: 51 sig / 1 TD · Pena: 23 sig / 1 TD
Michael Trizano
Luis Pena
22
Sig strikes landed
21
40
Sig strikes attempted
57
38
Total strikes landed
42
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.2
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
167s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
34%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Michael Trizano

"The Lone Wolf"
12-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
Blue corner
W1

Luis Pena

"Violent Bob Ross"
10-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—