Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Stevie Ray
Jessin Ayari
61%
39%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
29
Age
Δ 2y
26
23-10
Career record
Δ 0 pp
16-7
L2
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ray: 75 sig / 0 TD ·
Ayari: 63 sig / 0 TD
Stevie Ray
Jessin Ayari
45
Sig strikes landed
45
101
Sig strikes attempted
115
56
Total strikes landed
63
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
100s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Stevie Ray
"Braveheart"
23-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jessin Ayari
16-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—