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Misha Cirkunov vs Patrick Cummins

UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith ·Avenir Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Misha Cirkunov
Patrick Cummins
73% 27%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
32
Age
Δ 6y
38
15-10
Career record
Δ 4 pp
10-8
L2
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Cirkunov: 11 sig / 1 TD · Cummins: 3 sig / 0 TD
Misha Cirkunov
Patrick Cummins
35
Sig strikes landed
34
74
Sig strikes attempted
58
48
Total strikes landed
45
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
123s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Misha Cirkunov

15-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
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L UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
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W UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
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W UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
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W UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
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Blue corner
L1

Patrick Cummins

"Durkin"
10-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
W UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
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W UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—