Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
JR Coughran
Alex Gilpin
45%
55%
Why
24
Age
Δ 2y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Coughran: 85 sig / 0 TD ·
Gilpin: 47 sig / 1 TD
JR Coughran
Alex Gilpin
30
Sig strikes landed
35
66
Sig strikes attempted
73
40
Total strikes landed
53
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
104s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
JR Coughran
"Bam Bam"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
Alex Gilpin
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26