Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Bobby Moffett
Jacob Kilburn
60%
40%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
28
Age
Δ 5y
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Moffett: 30 sig / 2 TD ·
Kilburn: 8 sig / 0 TD
Bobby Moffett
Jacob Kilburn
37
Sig strikes landed
34
77
Sig strikes attempted
74
54
Total strikes landed
43
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
165s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Bobby Moffett
"The Wolfman"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Jacob Kilburn
"The Killer"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23