Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Joe Lowry
Devonte Smith
51%
49%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
29
Age
Δ 4y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lowry: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Smith: 34 sig / 0 TD
Joe Lowry
Devonte Smith
35
Sig strikes landed
38
75
Sig strikes attempted
79
53
Total strikes landed
55
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
132s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Joe Lowry
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Devonte Smith
"King Kage"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25