Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Roosevelt Roberts
Garrett Gross
70%
30%
Why
24
Age
Δ 6y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Roberts: 36 sig / 3 TD ·
Gross: 14 sig / 0 TD
Roosevelt Roberts
Garrett Gross
38
Sig strikes landed
32
79
Sig strikes attempted
67
55
Total strikes landed
49
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
135s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Roosevelt Roberts
"The Predator"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Garrett Gross
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30