Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jimmie Rivera
John Dodson
81%
19%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
23-6
Career record
Δ 14 pp
23-12
L1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rivera: 62 sig / 0 TD ·
Dodson: 41 sig / 0 TD
Jimmie Rivera
John Dodson
59
Sig strikes landed
54
143
Sig strikes attempted
137
68
Total strikes landed
55
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
58s
Control time
35s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jimmie Rivera
"El Terror"
23-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
Blue corner
W1
John Dodson
"The Magician"
23-12
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—