Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Carla Esparza vs Tatiana Suarez
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Carla Esparza
Tatiana Suarez
44%
56%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 3"
66"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
20-9
Career record
Δ 24 pp
14-1
L1
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Esparza: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Suarez: 82 sig / 9 TD
Carla Esparza
Tatiana Suarez
19
Sig strikes landed
35
48
Sig strikes attempted
64
51
Total strikes landed
68
0.9
Takedowns landed
3.1
2.5
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
132s
Control time
317s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
20-9
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
Blue corner
W3
Tatiana Suarez
14-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—