Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chase Hooper
Canaan Kawaihae
80%
20%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
19
Age
Δ 2y
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hooper: 81 sig / 0 TD ·
Kawaihae: 35 sig / 0 TD
Chase Hooper
Canaan Kawaihae
46
Sig strikes landed
33
88
Sig strikes attempted
79
59
Total strikes landed
41
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
163s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chase Hooper
"The Dream"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
19
Blue corner
Canaan Kawaihae
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
21