Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jeff Hughes
Josh Appelt
60%
40%
Why
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hughes: 51 sig / 2 TD ·
Appelt: 6 sig / 0 TD
Jeff Hughes
Josh Appelt
35
Sig strikes landed
31
68
Sig strikes attempted
58
50
Total strikes landed
49
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
92s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jeff Hughes
"Lights Out"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Josh Appelt
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35