Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jimmy Crute
Chris Birchler
82%
18%
Why
22
Age
Δ 9y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Crute: 65 sig / 0 TD ·
Birchler: 41 sig / 0 TD
Jimmy Crute
Chris Birchler
37
Sig strikes landed
33
75
Sig strikes attempted
64
57
Total strikes landed
47
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
153s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jimmy Crute
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
Blue corner
Chris Birchler
"The Big Buck"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
31