Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nick Newell
Alexander Munoz
72%
28%
Why
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Newell: 53 sig / 0 TD ·
Munoz: 61 sig / 4 TD
Nick Newell
Alexander Munoz
37
Sig strikes landed
34
76
Sig strikes attempted
71
55
Total strikes landed
41
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
171s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nick Newell
"Notorious"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
Blue corner
Alexander Munoz
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
28