Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Toby Misech
Ricky Palacios
46%
54%
Why
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Misech: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Palacios: 116 sig / 0 TD
Toby Misech
Ricky Palacios
35
Sig strikes landed
35
73
Sig strikes attempted
72
51
Total strikes landed
52
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
103s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Toby Misech
"2 Quick"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
Blue corner
Ricky Palacios
"El Gallero"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31