Main
Lightweight
Justin Gaethje vs James Vick
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
·Pinnacle Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Justin Gaethje
James Vick
87%
13%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
27-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
14-5
L2
Current streak
W4
3
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gaethje: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Vick: 10 sig / 0 TD
Justin Gaethje
James Vick
46
Sig strikes landed
81
88
Sig strikes attempted
172
70
Total strikes landed
90
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.70
Knockdowns
0.20
110s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
27-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
Blue corner
W4
James Vick
"The Texecutioner"
14-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 9-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
W
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—