Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tim Caron
Jordan Williams
61%
39%
Why
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Caron: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Williams: 94 sig / 3 TD
Tim Caron
Jordan Williams
34
Sig strikes landed
35
70
Sig strikes attempted
73
47
Total strikes landed
52
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
142s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Tim Caron
"The Bear"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Jordan Williams
"Bomaye"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28