Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Julian Erosa
Jamall Emmers
64%
36%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
29
Age
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Erosa: 54 sig / 0 TD ·
Emmers: 51 sig / 0 TD
Julian Erosa
Jamall Emmers
34
Sig strikes landed
32
76
Sig strikes attempted
68
51
Total strikes landed
50
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
100s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
Blue corner
Jamall Emmers
"Pretty Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29