Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Austin Tweedy
Te Edwards
65%
35%
Why
28
Age
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Tweedy: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Edwards: 3 sig / 0 TD
Austin Tweedy
Te Edwards
35
Sig strikes landed
33
75
Sig strikes attempted
72
47
Total strikes landed
45
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
145s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Austin Tweedy
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Te Edwards
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28