Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mark Hunt
Aleksei Oleinik
1%
99%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 8"
80"
44
Age
Δ 3y
41
13-15-1
Career record
Δ 32 pp
61-17-1
L1
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Hunt: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Oleinik: 3 sig / 1 TD
Mark Hunt
Aleksei Oleinik
19
Sig strikes landed
38
37
Sig strikes attempted
63
22
Total strikes landed
49
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
75s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mark Hunt
"Super Samoan"
13-15-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
45
In our database
16 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
L
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
Blue corner
W1
Aleksei Oleinik
"The Boa Constrictor"
61-17-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—