Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kevin Holland
Will Santiago
86%
14%
Why
26
Age
Δ 10y
35
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Holland: 83 sig / 0 TD ·
Santiago: 22 sig / 1 TD
Kevin Holland
Will Santiago
41
Sig strikes landed
28
83
Sig strikes attempted
60
58
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
109s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Will Santiago
"The Brown Bomber"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35