Back to UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Prelims2 Lightweight

Devin Powell vs Alvaro Herrera Mendoza

UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 ·Scotiabank Saddledome
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Devin Powell
Alvaro Herrera Mendoza
57% 43%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
9-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
9-7
L2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Powell: 12 sig / 0 TD · Herrera Mendoza: 7 sig / 0 TD
Devin Powell
Alvaro Herrera Mendoza
33
Sig strikes landed
36
71
Sig strikes attempted
77
50
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
137s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Devin Powell

9-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
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L UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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Blue corner
L2

Alvaro Herrera Mendoza

"Chango"
9-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
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