Main
Welterweight
Sage Northcutt vs Zak Ottow
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov
·CenturyLink Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sage Northcutt
Zak Ottow
70%
30%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
22
Age
Δ 9y
32
12-2
Career record
Δ 14 pp
18-7
W2
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Northcutt: 24 sig / 1 TD ·
Ottow: 6 sig / 1 TD
Sage Northcutt
Zak Ottow
39
Sig strikes landed
35
84
Sig strikes attempted
80
52
Total strikes landed
49
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
87s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Sage Northcutt
"Super"
12-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
Blue corner
W1
Zak Ottow
"The Barbarian"
18-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—