Main
Middleweight
Brad Tavares vs Israel Adesanya
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale
·Pearl Concert Theater
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brad Tavares
Israel Adesanya
27%
73%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
80"
30
Age
Δ 2y
29
22-13
Career record
Δ 18 pp
25-6
W4
Current streak
W2
16
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Tavares: 40 sig / 1 TD ·
Adesanya: 119 sig / 0 TD
Brad Tavares
Israel Adesanya
39
Sig strikes landed
59
113
Sig strikes attempted
119
47
Total strikes landed
64
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.2
4.8
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
84s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Brad Tavares
22-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
16 fights · 12-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
W2
Israel Adesanya
"The Last Stylebender"
25-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—