Back to UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2
🏆 Title fight Main Bantamweight

TJ Dillashaw vs Cody Garbrandt

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
TJ Dillashaw
Cody Garbrandt
69% 31%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
19-5
Career record
Δ 14 pp
15-8
W3
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dillashaw: 45 sig / 0 TD · Garbrandt: 17 sig / 0 TD
TJ Dillashaw
Cody Garbrandt
73
Sig strikes landed
59
157
Sig strikes attempted
147
93
Total strikes landed
61
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.4
1.00
Knockdowns
0.50
167s
Control time
15s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
70%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

TJ Dillashaw

19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 14 fights · 11-3
Last 5
W UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
W UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
W UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
L UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
W UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
Blue corner
L1

Cody Garbrandt

"No Love"
15-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
L UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
W UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
W UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
W UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
W UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…