Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Arnold Allen
Mads Burnell
83%
17%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
24
Age
Δ 0y
24
22-4
Career record
Δ 8 pp
10-3
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Allen: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Burnell: 20 sig / 6 TD
Arnold Allen
Mads Burnell
32
Sig strikes landed
19
81
Sig strikes attempted
58
67
Total strikes landed
36
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.1
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
273s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Arnold Allen
"Almighty"
22-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
Blue corner
W1
Mads Burnell
10-3
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—