Prelims2
Middleweight
Elias Theodorou vs Trevor Smith
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till
·Echo Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Elias Theodorou
Trevor Smith
81%
19%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
75"
30
Age
Δ 7y
37
17-3
Career record
Δ 23 pp
16-10
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Theodorou: 77 sig / 0 TD ·
Smith: 41 sig / 3 TD
Elias Theodorou
Trevor Smith
52
Sig strikes landed
44
103
Sig strikes attempted
97
83
Total strikes landed
64
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.4
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
218s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Elias Theodorou
"The Spartan"
17-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Trevor Smith
"Hot Sauce"
16-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
L
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—