Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stephen Thompson
Darren Till
32%
68%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
35
Age
Δ 10y
25
18-9-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
19-5-1
W1
Current streak
W3
12
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Thompson: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Till: 38 sig / 0 TD
Stephen Thompson
Darren Till
48
Sig strikes landed
41
103
Sig strikes attempted
93
56
Total strikes landed
48
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
55s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
18-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
12 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
L
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
D
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
Blue corner
W3
Darren Till
"The Gorilla"
19-5-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
5 fights · 4-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—